Progression dynamics of Zika fever outbreak in El Salvador during 2015–2016: a mathematical modeling approach


Aim: The aim of the study was to utilize mathematical modeling to investigate effect of different parameters that affected mosquito-borne transmission of Zika virus during 2015–2016 outbreak in El Salvador. The model can be used to predict outbreaks at various geographical regions utilizing different conditions. Materials & methods: A susceptible-exposed-infectious-recovered mathematical model was generated for disease progression. Results: The model correlated with actual number of reported cases and stability analysis. The value of reproduction number (Ro = 4.5537) indicated rapid spread of viral infection suggestive of an outbreak. Simulations revealed that transitional parameters affected disease progression.

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