From TB to leprosy: financial model reveals where pipelines and investments might fall short

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A new analysis of products in the research and development pipeline has suggested that critical vaccines for TB, HIV and malaria are missing from the pipeline. In addition, the model predicts that no products in the pipeline will launch for tropical disease including leprosy and trachoma, demonstrating where global health investment might fall short.

The study, published recently in Gates Open Research, analyzed 538 candidate products – including both diagnostics and medicines – for 35 diseases to estimate the costs and likelihood each product would progress to launch. The team utilized a financial modelling tool termed Portfolio-to-Impact, demonstrating that with current funding only around 128 of the current candidates would make it through the pipeline.

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